Tuesday, January 4, 2011

STANDING UPON SHOULDERS OF GIANTS- MORGERNSTERN'S LEGACY

Oskar Morgenstern was born in 1902, January 24th, in Görlitz, Germany. The beginning of the century in Europe, mainly in Austria, was remarkable with contest of inflationary, socialism, and fiscal policy problems in an uncertainty and without peace world. The threat and happen of World War I do not brought stabilized environment to economic and political policies.
            With 23 years old, Morgenstern concluded his PhD on Political Science from University of Vienna (1925). He was influenced by Austrian School which emphasizes the power of price mechanism in contest with government influence on price system. Also, that School supported an opposition against Marxism Thought and socialist doctrines.
            The Vienna Circle gathered philosophers, mathematicians, physicists, economists, and other intellectuals with applied logical positivism drawn from Ludwig Wittgenstein.   In that atmosphere Morgenstern concluded his studies with emphasizes in speculation and economic prediction. As a Professor of University of Vienna (1929-38), in 1931 Morgenstern received the incumbency to succeed Friedrich August von Hayek, Nobel Prize in Economics in 1974,   as director of Austrian Institute of Business Cycle Research. 
            Vienna, the capital of Austrian-Hungary Empire, and intellectual capital of Europe supporting different races, religious, political thoughts, musicians, literatures, and so one. The Vienna Colloquium run in 1930s presented many different minds from mathematics, physical sciences, philosophy, politics, statistics, and economics, reviving the general equilibrium theory from Lausanne School. With that perspective Morgenstern employed Abraham Wald in his institute and become one of the critics of Austrian Theory of Capital, even in the Cradle of Austrian School. 
            Summarizing, Morgenstern received the influence from Austrian School, Vienna Circle and Vienna Colloquium. So he was influenced by academics as Karl Menger, Karl Schlesinger, Abraham Wald, Gustav Bergman, Rudolf Carnap, Herbert Feigl, Philipp Frank, Kurt Gödel, Hans Hahn, Tscha Hung, Victor Kraft, Richard von Mises, Marcel Natkin, Otto Neurath, Olga Hahn-Neurath, Theodor Radakovic, Rose Rand, Friedrich Waismann, Ludwig Wittgenstein, and Edward Cech.
            With these theoretical, epistemological and scientific supports we may consider two main points of research:
(i)                 speculation and economic prediction: from perfect foresight to strategic behavior evolving support to game theory and posterior contributions to finance with spectral analysis and test of the emerging random walk hypothesis;  and
(ii)               mathematical theory of expanding and contraction of economies and  multi-sector growth model as minor field of study.
Morgenstern was found in his three years as a recipient fellowship, financed by Rockefeller Foundation during the Anschluss happened, union of Austria and Germany. Dismissed by nazi regime he joined to Princeton University (1938-1970), latter moved to New York University (1970-77), where he died.
During his period in Princeton he become member of Nassau Club and met intellectuals like Kurt Gödel, Albert Einstein, Niels Bohr, and Oswald Veblen.
Guided by Edward Cech to Zur Theorie der Gesellschaftspiele, written by John von Neumann in 1928, Morgenstern aggregate his knowledge of Frank H. Knight on uncertainty and strategic battle of Sherlock Holmes against Professor Moriarty as an important aspect to be developing von Neumann contribution in 1928. 




Amongst his contributions to theory we consider influence and opportunities open to many scientists as Abraham Wald, who developed the Walras-Cassel system, expanded latter by Samuelson, Arrow, and Debreu.                                        
On his collaboration with John von Neumann, read the paper The Collaboration Between Oskar Morgenstern and John von Neumann on the Theory of Games, by Oskar Morgenstern Source: Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 14, No. 3, (Sep., 1976), pp. 805-816, Morgenstern is considered one of the fathers of Theory of Games.


 No less important, Morgenstern invited Clive Granger to be a fellowship in the United States and work with him with spectral analysis in finance.
            Although sometimes we attribute him minor role in theory of games this short note reveals us his decisive influence to economic theory. The famous book Theory of Games and Economic Behavior is still a landmark for Game Theorists and could be named Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by Oskar Morgenstern and John von Neumann. Also, call Expected Utility of Morgenstern and von Neumann as M-vN Utility.
  

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